Journal of Current Researches on Engineering, Science and Technology (JoCREST)

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Abstract


Determination of Demand Estimation Methods by Values and Variability Measures for Stock Items in a Cleaning Paper Company

In today's competitive environment, businesses can maintain and improve their market situation by analyzing customers' behavior and making accurate estimates of their future behavior. In an increasingly competitive environment, businesses that can predict the movements of the products on the market will be able to continue their assets. Demand forecasting is the estimation of the amount of goods and services consumers will demand in the future and many analytical methods have been developed for this purpose. In this study, first, the inventory items of a company operating in the cleaning paper sector in Turkey was ranked according to the significance with ABC analysis then, it was classified by demand variability with XYZ analysis and clustered by integration of ABC analysis and XYZ analysis. Then move from the past sales data of the company; demand forecast for each inventory item has been made. "Trend Analysis", "Moving Average", "Single and Double Exponential Smoothing", and "Additive and Multiplicative Decomposition" methods are applied among demand forecasting methods. For each estimate, error calculation is performed using MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error), MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) and MSE (Mean Square Error). Based on error calculations, the most appropriate estimation method has been determined.Demand forecasting method is interpreted according to the error performance of the from AX group products with low variability and high inventory value to CZ group products with high variability and low inventory value.



Keywords
ABC analysis, demand forecasting, XYZ analysis.



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